According to John McAfee, the Bitcoin price is expected to rise to one million by the end of 2020. The well-known crypto evangelist is so sure that he is putting his best piece on this claim. But is this really realistic?
John McAfee is undoubtedly one of the more dazzling personalities in the crypto ecosystem
The founder of McAfee Associates has made a name for himself time and again before his interest in crypto currencies, but his interest in Bitcoin and other Altcoins has made him particularly present. Especially between the years he has attracted attention with controversial applications of different coins. As it came out later, he is rewarded for such appraisals princely.
While the endorsements for various ICOs or crypto currencies have a very short half-life, this cannot be said about a prognosis: In July 2017 he stiffened to the statement that Bitcoin would have a value of 500,000 US dollars by the end of 2020. He underlined this statement somewhat vulgarly:
„if not, I will eat my dick on national television.“
At the end of November, he made his bet even more interesting: since the price would have behaved much better than his underlying model, he would now assume one million US dollars. His paintings were still at stake.
According to his own statements, John McAfee can fall back on a doctorate in point-set topology and can thus predict the price. Although John McAfee does not look into the cards, according to various sources, McAfee’s claim can be described by means of an exponential price development.
Such models are not uncommon per se. Even classic investments such as the Dow Jones or the Dax can in principle be described by such a development:
The website fnordprefekt.de offers interested parties an entertaining tool with which they can model such price forecasts themselves. And indeed, as some pages promise, a corresponding price development can be assumed – at least according to a sense of proportion. Unfortunately, it can only be said with a sense of proportion whether the model can really be justified on the basis of the data situation. In this article, therefore, an exponential price model is to be developed which best fits the actual price development.